| Sunday, 19 February 2012 17:08
Has there really been a player watch like this over the years? I can go back to July of 2007 when Sabres fans were clinging on to their rosary beads and praying for the co-captains to return. Alas, the heaves were not listening. Here's the funny/sad thing about both teams, there really hasn't been a free agent that fans have been clamoring for their teams to re-sign. Why? Because there haven't been many. And yes, that has nothing to do with both teams re-signing their core guys early.
As a Buffalo fan, people can talk all they want about being positive and dismissing Bucky's myths about fans going into self-deprecate mood about their teams, but that's the truth. OK, maybe it is not, but I guarantee most fans -positive or negative- have had the thought of "Well, Stevie leaving here would be typical Buffalo." It would be very typical for the Bills as well. When the latest news about Stevie's contract demands being far apart hit the airwaves, I, for one, greeted it with tweeting a few angry messages about the Bills being a constant pain in my ass.
I've already went over in great detail about the possibility of the Bills re-signing Stevie, but as usual, there is always another side to the story. Frankly, I think when you take away the personality of Stevie, this is a decent debate. There is a part of me that thinks Bills fans are so beaten down that anything that resembles hope, they will cling onto it like fat kids cling onto Twinkies. We have taken so much garbage over the years that we tend to be punch drunk as fans. We act like crap is average, average is good, and good is hall of fame.
Are we overrating Stevie because we have nothing? Are we nothing more than Tom Hanks hanging out on Gilligan's Island and Stevie represents our Wilson? Well, it all comes down to if Ralph Wilson decides whether it is better to let Stevie castaway or bring him back.
Here are all your angles as to why the Bills won't re-sign Stevie.
Is he a #1 option?
Catches, touchdowns and yards. Those are the measuring stick for figuring out a wide receiver's worth. Stevie's numbers from last year: 76 catches (Ranked 11th), 1,004 yards (ranked 17th) and 7 touchdowns (ranked 18th). Those sound pretty good when you compare them to other WRs, right? However, if you take a closer look, you can find some negatives. For one, Stevie only has one 100 yard performance in his last 18 games. He doesn't really stretch the field as he has averaged only 13.2 yards a catch, which ranked 56th in the NFL. He was also targeted 135 times which makes me think he could have done a little bit better. You also can't ignore some of the key drops he had against the Steelers and Jets. I don't know, I wanna say he's a #1 WR, but when you compare him to a Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson, it is not even close. You are going to pay him like those superstars and yet, I don't think the production will be the same. Mark it down, if Stevie hits the open market and he goes to the highest bidder, a number of Bills' apologists will say "Well, I wouldn't have signed him for that! Good for the Bills."
Cash rules everything around Ralph
Since August, the Bills have given out over 110-million in contracts (Of course, they aren't guaranteed) to the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Williams, Nick Barnett, Rian Lindell and Erik Pears. Even with those deals, I still don't buy the Bills being an organization that will throw out a ton of cash. There are just too many instances when the Bills have let good players leave without paying them market value. I mean, pick a player! They did it to Jason Peters who will make the pro bowl every year. They did it to Winfield, Williams and Clements. By some reports, they got rid of Lee Evans because the guys in Detroit (Overdorf and Littmann) told Nix they had to cut salary. The Bills are notorious for letting guys go after their rookie deals expire only to then draft their cheaper replacements (See: McGahee for Lynch. Fletcher for Poz. McKelvin for Greer. Spiller for Lynch. Corners.) The Bills are frugal. Period. They already gave a boatload of money to #14 and #95, which means Ralph's vault could be shut. Again, the wide receiver position is a costly position in the NFL. It rewards guys who have averaged 60 catches a year (See: Holmes/Berrian deals). Johnson will command probably the biggest contract in terms of yearly salary and signing bonus the Bills have ever had to pay. Are they up to it?
The antics
Without question, this is my least and will probably be the most played out position as to why Stevie was let go. I can already envision the Bills leaking stuff to the press about how Stevie was a diva and hard to deal with. They will leak it out to their watch dogs in the TV media and watch the talking heads -who work on their payroll- marvel at the great decision. That he was some kind of drama queen and disobeyed Gailey. As I've said before, the Bills weren't all holier than thou when they signed Terrell Owens. Now, I will try and play devil's advocate in adding credence to this logic. Owens, you see, wasn't T.O. until at least his 4th or 5th year in San Fran. Steve Young has gone on record to say that Owens was like the nicest kid to him when they played together in San Fran during his early years. He would always say thank you to him and he wasn't about himself. All of a sudden, the dude started scoring touchdowns and developed a big ego due to stardom. In other words, it kind of came out of nowhere. Stevie is the last show boater left in the NFL. Owens is in the arena league and Chad Ocho Cinco was ocho stinko last year. Stevie could see this as an opportunity to really grab the spotlight from the old guard. He may decide to become a above the team kind of guy because he wants the attention. All I'm saying is that most of us can deal with him now, but what if his act gets worse?
Waterdown position
If you are paying attention to the way the Hall of Fame vote is going down these days, you'll notice the trend that the writers don't exactly respect the WR position. The numbers are out of control because teams elect to pass the ball more and the rules are much more in favor for the WRs than the CBs. Last year, 19 WRs went over 1,000 yards, while in 2010 that number was 17. Wait. That doesn't seem like a lot when you consider that this is the passing era and that in 1995, 23 WRs went over that mark. I think the reason being is that most offenses these days rely on spreading the ball around rather than looking at one main guy. It is easier for everyone to get open is all I'm saying. Look at the Pats and Giants. Eli and Brady would always spread the wealth to their guys. It should also be noted that you can find decent wide receivers in the middle of the draft. Of the top 20 wide receivers from last year, only six of them were former first round picks. Guys like Wes Welker and Victor Cruz were undrafted. This isn't like the QB position where most guys are first round picks. You can easily find diamonds late in the draft. Hell, we should learn that with Stevie.
1st round pick love
There use to be a growing sentiment that it takes a wide receiver, who was drafted in the first round, at least three years to blossom in the NFL. I use to hear it from Bills fans when talking about Eric Moulds and Lee Evans. Nowadays, a rookie WRs impact can happen much quicker. Julio Jones and AJ Green were drafted in the top 10 last year and both recorded over 2,000 yards and 17 touchdowns combined. Percy Harvin put up 60 grabs and six touchdowns during his rookie year. Jeremy MaClin had 776 yards in just 13 games as a rookie. Hakeem Hicks had 790 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns as a diaper dandy. Again, it goes back to rules favoring the WR position. It should also be noted that the three guys I just mentioned had over 1,000 yards receiving the following year. Trust me, David Nelson doesn't grab 62 catches during his 2nd year as a pro in 2000. Also, this would only cost the Bills around 4-5 million yearly, which is the biggest part of the love. Lastly, don't you think Gailey would like to get his hands on 1st round talent?
Gailey's impact
I will always remember this little snippet from a Peter King article when Gailey was hired.
I can guarantee you one of the things that the Bills loved was Gailey's attitude about how you can win without stars in the NFL. In fact, that's the kind of team he prefers. More than once in his career, he's told coaches he worked with: "You can win the World Series without Babe Ruth.'
The comment tells me that Gailey thinks he can get the most out of average players, which is kind of true. Buddy Nix kind of elaborated on that when talking about the future of Scott Chandler. Who was Johnson or Fitzpatrick before Gailey got his hands on them? Nobodies. Now both are going to be making a ton of money. I'm not sure how much Gailey values wide receivers in his offense, but he may think he can easily find Johnson's replacement. His offense relies on spreading the field and the ball around to the likes of Nelson and Jackson. I don't think it really revolves around one main guy.
Spreading the wealth
You can never go by what the actual salary cap is these days. Yes, the Bills are 20 million under it, but we all know they have their own cap and that Ralph Wilson wants to make as much money as humanly possible. With that being said, if the Bills give #13 a contract that's worth 10-million per, I don't think we are going to sign that defensive pass rusher or starting cornerback or a 2nd option or give a raise to Fred Jackson. Hey, don't kill the messenger, that is how the Bills do business.
Jilted lover?
This will probably be the lamest of the reasons, but there have always been rumblings that if Ralph gets burned by a mistake he makes (IE: Drafting Mike Williams or hiring Tom Donahoe), he acts like a lover who can't love again because his heart is broken. He becomes bitter. "Give up control? F-that. Pay a rookie 10-million bucks yearly? Um, trade out of that spot?!" I bring up Lee Evans. Evans had signed his 4-year, 37-million dollar deal on October 4th, 2008. The deal made him the third highest paid WR in the league. His numbers before the raise: 247 catches, 4,059 yards and 30 touchdowns in 68 games. After his raise: 130 catches, 1875 yards and 13 touchdowns in 41 games. Do the math and Evans averaged just over 3 catches and less than 50 yards a game after his bank account went up. I don't know, but maybe he's bitter about giving all that money out to a WR and getting such a low return.
Better options
Look, my stance in wanting #13 to come back is due in large part because I think the Bills are cheap and will try and tell us that Mario Manningham or Hines Ward are #1 options. However, if the Bills are somehow -and this a dream scenario- looking to upgrade, they can do it very easily with this free agent batch. If they want Vincent Jackson or Dwayne Bowe then I'm exchanging my "Why so serious?" T-shirt for a Action Jackson or Bowe knows shirt. If Marques Colston has any gear, I'm buying that too. Heck, I'd even kick the tires on Reggie Wayne instead of Stevie. Hey, I'm for a Sam Cowart/London Fletcher or Bennett/Spielman type swap.
Final word:
When the news hit last week that the Bills and Stevie had contract talks, being the optimistic person that I am (sarcasm), I thought the chances of #13 staying were 55/45. The biggest reason as to why I feel this way has to do with how the Bills understand that their fan base wants to kill them and how they normally pay out WRs. Now with the latest news that contract talks are far apart and they won't franchise him, I say it is 35/65 that Stevie bounces. I think if he hits the open market, the Bills will be finished. Someone will outbid them on his services. I think the biggest factor that hurts Stevie is money. Don't buy into the nonsense about him being a troublemaker. There will be some reporters who will try and shill up to the Bills by saying he's a bad apple and not an elite WR. Fine...but the problem is that the Bills contingency plan interferes with their other needs.
It will no doubt be the ugliest day in Bills Mafia Twitter history if Stevie leaves. There will definitely be some venomous blogs out there about his departure. I don't want to say it would be a deathblow to the fans psyche, as in we are not buying season tickets and I'm changing my team to the Argos, but it will be pretty damn close. It is all in the eye of the beholder. We go into the bunker whenever negative stuff like this happens. There won't be any sort of sugar coating with it. Stevie isn't Lynch or McGahee. The fans will riot and it will resemble what the Joker wanted in Dark Knight: Massive chaos.
Why so serious? Bills fans love #13 and hate the establishment.
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