| Sunday, 12 February 2012 22:39
I happen to be a dreamer. I've been a dreamer in every walk of life. Playboy, millionaire, bar owner, athlete, sports blowhard, or actor. You name a cool profession, I've probably dreamt it. If there's one career that a number of people have imagined being, it's probably being an athlete.
As a kid, I think we can all say that we have dreamt to be the next Jim Kelly or Pat LaFontaine when we were playing in the backyard with friends or dad. Of course, you wanted to be like them. They were the best. For me, sometimes I wanted to mirror the player's personality. Like if I were in their position, how would I act? Would I be like Jim Kelly and his tough, blue-collar attitude? Would I be a moody, angry soul like Thurman Thomas? Would I be fake like Bruce Smith? Would I be a family man like Steve Tasker or as astute as Marv Levy?
I think I would probably be the moody guy. A player who would tell the media to F-off as many times as possible. So, I guess I would be Thurman. However, for a new generation of Bills fans, talking about you padawans, they would probably want to be funnier. More of an entertainer. They would probably want to be someone they can relate to.
That man is probably Stevie Johnson.
We are about a month away from NFL free agency and the biggest question on Bills fans' minds is whether Stevie Johnson is going to stay a Bill next year. We love Stevie Johnson here at the site. I think all of our writers have written about Stevie in one way or another. In the 12 years of no playoffs, there haven't been many bright spots for fans. I can probably name like only 6-7 players over the last 12 years who were really liked by the fan base at one point: Bledsoe, Moulds, McGahee, Spikes, Lynch, Jackson, Fitz and probably Evans. Frankly, half this list became unpopular pretty quickly at one point. The majority of the popular players came through during Donahoe's time, while during Jauron's tenure, the players seemed to be as popular as Screech Powers.
Stevie is our AC Slater right now.
If he leaves, I can't fathom how the Bills will be able to spin this to their fans. I don't care how many stories they leak to the press and pull their best "Chris Drury and Danny Briere were running out of here", the majority of fans have made up their mind that they don't want him to leave. So, as fans, we just sit here and wait. Tick-tock.
For me, I've been trying to look at every single angle as to whether the Bills will re-sign #13. Here are your pro angles as to why the Bills will re-sign Stevie.
Who do we have left? It has been argued by Stevie haters that he's not a true #1 WR. Fine. But if there's one thing I can tell you it's that the Bills don't have a #1 or #2 guy on this team if Stevie leaves. David Nelson is a nice player (61 catches and five touchdowns), but he's a borderline #2 option. He's just not dynamic enough and petty much runs the same routes. Donald Jones is, well, Donald Jones. I'm not exactly moved by Scott Chandler, who was ranked 23rd in catches for TE. Then you have the practice squad bunch of Martin, Roosevelt and whoever the hell #80 was, and they don't exactly resemble a passing of the torch moment if Stevie leaves.
Forget pass rusher: Pass rusher, pass rusher, pass rusher. That's what I've been saying since the end of the season. 4-3, 3-4, 747, 666 or whatever, I don't care what defensive alignment the Bills run, if they don't find a pass rusher, they are doomed. The Bills could go about drafting a WR in the first round, but then they would lose out in adding a pass rusher. Yes, I don't believe the Bills are going to go nuts in free agency because they have only signed two FAs who have made more than 5-million bucks yearly since 2004 (Owens and Dockery). If the Bills lose Johnson, you would have to put wide receiver right next to pass rusher as a need. Also, I don't think it helps your 60-million dollar QB to lose his number 1 target.
Stevie doesn't suck: #13 is the only wide receiver in Bills history to have back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons. His 158 grabs and 17 touchdowns over the last two years represents the third and second most during a two year span in club history. He hasn't exactly played with a stellar cast of WRs to take the pressure off of him either. He also made the immortal Darrelle Revis look like just another corner. He's only 25 and you can only hope that he'll get better as the years go by. Can you imagine what he would do if he went to say New England? We have heard it mentioned a hundred times but it bears repeating, this is a passing league. You don't lose your top receiver in a league like this. Seriously, who was the last WR to leave their team who was in the prime of their career like this? You pay these guys for the most part. You only get rid of them if they are jackasses (See: T.O. and Randy Moss).
The Bills do pay WRs: For years, Bills fans (myself included) have complained that the team refuses to pay top dollar for talent. Before Terrence McGee and Drayton Florence, the Bills would let their corners leave after their rookie contracts ran out. In my view, the Bills got rid of McGahee because he wanted a new deal as his rookie contract was coming to end. When Jason Peters was begging for a new deal, the Bills said nada and shipped him out. However, if there is one position they have been nice about paying out, it's WR. Eric Moulds, Lee Evans and Terrell Owens all made pretty decent money off Ralph Wilson. Moulds got a 6-year, 40-million dollar deal in 2001, which was the going rate for top WRs at that time. He earned it after having a 3-year stretch with over 3,700 yards receiving and 21 touchdowns. Um, yeah, he deserved a raise. Lee Evans gained his 4-year, 40 million deal midway through 2008, but he wasn't nearly as good as Moulds. Evans had a great 2006 season with Losman, but besides that season, he was average-decent. Still, the Bills gave him a market value deal. As for Owens, he inked a 1-year deal worth 6.5 million. That's 86.5 million dollars between 3 players. Find me three position players the Bills have paid that much to in the last 12 years.
Lee vs Stevie: I think comparing Lee and Stevie's stats prior to their contracts can certainly open some eyes when it comes to trying to crack the Bills code. I'm pretty sure that Stevie would take the same deal Evans got since reports surfaced that he was looking for 7.5 million a year. In comparing, I'm not going to count Stevie's first two years because he hardly played. However, if we take Lee's best two years prior to his extension and put them against Stevie's last two years, they are pretty similar. From 2006-2007, Evans caught 137 balls for 2,141 yards and 13 touchdowns. As for Stevie, he's got 156 catches for 2,077 yards and 17 touchdowns. I should mention that Stevie didn't start 2 games in 2010. So, Stevie has the advantage in catches and touchdowns while Evans has the yardage title. So, if you go by just Lee Evans' numbers, Stevie should be getting an extension, right? RIGHT?!
T.O. Factor: In the weeks to come, we are going to hear a ton of speculation about whether the Bills are sick of Stevie's antics. It should be noted that the team gave T.O. 6.5 million bucks after being a QB killer in San Fran, Philly and Dallas. He is also the originator of celebration penalties and yet, the Bills still signed someone who had more baggage than a 747 going to Australia. In other words, they are use to giving out contracts to players with character issues, which I don't even think Stevie has to begin with.
This is the rate: While in Buffalo during my 1-month Christmas sabbatical, I was watching channel 4 sports and Paul Peck, who has been a critic of Stevie Johnson, said that the Bills should offer #13 anywhere between 5-6 million bucks a year. I don't know if Paul has ever heard of the website rotoworld or if he's just cheap by nature, but Stevie isn't signing anywhere near that. For crap sakes, Brad Smith got 3.5 million bucks a year. Anyways, the going rate is going to be 7-10 million bucks yearly. Wide receivers are a pricey position. It is also a position in which you can get a pretty hefty raise for having 1-2 decent seasons. Bernard Berrian had 122 catches for the Bears during a 2-year stretch and received a 6-year, 42-million dollar deal from the Vikings in 2008. Miles Austin got 6-year, 54 million dollar deal in 2010 and he only played one full season in which he caught 81 balls for 1,320 yards and 11 touchdowns. Take away Santonio's game winning touchdown catch in the Super Bowl, and you have a guy who has only caught more than 55 passes once in his career prior to his giant contract from last summer (10-million a year). Again, judging by his stats and the market, Stevie deserves 7-10 million a year.
Public relations nightmare: When the Bills signed T.O. in 2009, I remember how I read that the Bills marketing team added to the decision to bring him on board. Sell jerseys and tickets in Toronto. Well, I hope the marketing team is giving advice to Russ and Ralph about how Stevie leaving could really fire off a sh#$ storm of epic proportions. As I wrote earlier, the fans love Stevie, but more importantly, they are at a breaking point where if anything goes remotely bad, they are going to go ape sh#t. Remember how fired up fans were in August when the Bills lost out to Tyson Clabo and didn't really go nuts in free agency? It was a grease fire. I think if Rian Lindell left, fans would be ticked off because they are so down on the team. Morale is low and if the Bills let Stevie go and replace him with Mario Manningham, the sh#t will hit the fan. Oh, and we shouldn't forget that Stevie does sell jerseys, gets on Jim Rome, and the fans do love him (Unless, you are a 55-year old sports writer).
Franchise tag: As of right now, it would cost the Bills 9.5 million to keep Stevie for 2012 if they elect to franchise him. Frankly, I'm fine with this because I think Stevie would get something around 7-8 million yearly. Heck, I can see it at 10-million bucks (See: Santonio Holmes' deal). I don't really see the difference in payouts. I understand why the Bills wouldn't franchise Fitz because he would make 15-million bucks, which he's not worth. But the annual top rate for WRs are what I can see Stevie making. The Bills haven't used their franchise tag since 2006 with Nate Clements. Before that, you'd have to goto 2003 when they franchised and traded the rights to Peerless Price to Atlanta. So it has been awhile. Even still, this is your get out of jail card if the Bills want to use it.
Money in Ralph's couch cushion: PFT.com reported that the Bills are 20-million under next year's cap and with Buddy Nix telling the media they plan to spend to the cap, it tells me that the Bills are looking to give out deals. Now I know the Bills have cash to the cap, which I believe Mark Gaughan said 2/3rds of the NFL uses that sort of accounting, but we are only a year away from the minimum spending for teams to kick in. In other words, the Bills are going to have to start spending more money soon because Chris Kelsay and Lindell extensions can only get you so far away from the bottom of spending money.
Up next: Reasons the Bills won't re-sign #13.
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