Matthew Berry is going to need to step his game up.
At the rate I'm going, I'll be gunning for the head spot as The Talented Mr. Roto before the TMR himself can finish next week's edition of "Love/Hate".
Okay, so maybe Mr. Berry still has me beat for now, but my picks have been nothing to hang my head over so far.
Not to mention, I'm still better looking.
But I digress.
Hopefully you have all been absorbing my advice so far. If you have, I'd presume your fantasy teams are sitting pretty 2-0 like mine are.
Last week was a good one for us.
We hit Peyton Hillis and Mike Wallace right on the nose while taking other big wins on Jimmy Graham and Matt Forte.
If you didn't see the dismal week coming for Chris Johnson, Dwayne Bowe and Reggie Wayne, don't worry. I had you covered.
Of course, I didn't want to show off too much, so I made sure I was WAY off on my predictions for Cam Newton, Fred Jackson and Tony Gonzalez.
I guess it's about time I began to give Newton some credit, eh? He showed up and almost picked apart the Super Bowl Champs last week. He did make a few big rookie mistakes which ultimately cost the Panthers the game, but 400 yards in your first two weeks in the NFL? C'mon now.
I never saw it coming. But I guess I can't be right about everything. (I'm still glad the Bills didn't get the chance to draft Newton, though)
This week should be another fun one.
Who would have thought Bills vs Patriots would be the premier game everyone is turning to for offensive output and lots and lots of fantasy points this week? Yeah, not me.
It's the perfect recipe for fantasy football: two very good quarterbacks (well, one great one and one pretty good one) are squaring off against opposing defenses that couldn't stop the pass if they were ... um ... something that can't stop passes very well.
Personally, after last weeks game I'm not sure I can remember a time in my life where I've been prouder to be a Bills fan than I do now. I know, that's not saying very much because they haven't exactly given us anything to be proud of in my life span to this point, but for the first time in my years as a Bills fan, I can say things are at the very least finally starting to look up.
And so without further ado, here are the Studs and Duds for week three of our fantasy football season:
A "stud" constitutes a player I feel is a must-start as he displays a very favorable match-up and is primed to put up a ton of points for that particular week.
A "dud" is a player who I feel is put into starting lineups far too often for that particular week or simply won't perform up to expectations. In all likelihood, there is a much better option for your starting lineup than a "dud" based upon match-ups for the week.
*All statistics and projections are based off of the standard Yahoo! Sports PPR league scoring system.
Before we get to the Studs of week three, excuse me as I gloat (and bite my tongue) while we look over my predictions from last week.
Week 1 Told'ya So(Studs)
Kevin Kolb QB ARI
Projected: 331 YDS 3 TD 1 INT, 24 PTS
Actual: 251 YDS 2 TD 1 INT, 16 PTS
Peyton Hillis RB CLE
Projected: 142 YDS, 2 TD, 21 PTS
Actual: 117 TOTYDS, 4 REC, 2 TD, 21 PTS
Matt Forte RB CHI
Projected: 178 TOTYDS, 5 REC, 2 TDS, 26 PTS
Actual: 166 TOTYDS, 10 REC, 17 PTS
Mike Wallace WR PIT
Projected: 9 REC 123 YDS, 1 TD, 19 PTS
Actual: 8 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD, 19 PTS
Jimmy Graham TE NO
Projected: 8 REC 112 YDS, 1 TD, 18 PTS
Actual: 10 REC 135 YDS, 1 TD, 21 PTS
Week 2 Eating Crow (Studs)
Santonio Holmes WR NYJ
Projected: 7 REC 114 YDS, 1 TD, 17 PTS
Actual: 3 REC 42 YDS, 1 TD, 10 PTS
Week 1 Success Rate: 4/6, 66%
Week 2 Success Rate: 5/6, 83%
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB BUF
Matchup vs New England
I bet you thought I would never mention the Amish Rifle here, didn't you? Well, here he is, headlining this weeks Studs in what is sure to be a Pats vs Bills game for the ages (or, so we hope). One thing we do know is there will be points scored in this game. Lots of them. And if the Bills score any, Ryan Fitzpatrick will almost certainly be the reason why. He's tossed for seven touchdowns as I've downplayed the possibility he might put up numbers through two games. Well, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Needless to say, if I have Fitz on my roster this week (which I don't), he's my starting quarterback.
Week 3 Forecast: 33/43 342 YDS, 3 TD 2 INT, 22 PTS
Honorable mentions: Phillip Rivers, Joe Flacco
Michael Turner RB ATL
Matchup vs Tampa Bay
The Burner torched the Bucs for almost 200 yards and three touchdowns in two games last season and Tampa hasn't really looked all that impressive to start off their year this season. Roddy White is a little banged up for Atlanta and Julio Jones has yet to find his NFL legs, so I think the Falcons will throw a heavy dose of rushing plays towards Tampa Bay this week. Turner is probably the biggest lock at running back for 100 yards and a score this week.
Week 3 Forecast: 24 CAR, 124 YDS, 1 TD, 3 REC, 26 YDS, 18 PTS
Jahvid Best RB DET
Matchup vs Minnesota
You know what they say about guys who put up more than 100 total yards and multiple scores against the Chiefs, right? Yeah, me neither. But if we had to give them a name we could call them Jahvid Best (or Freddy Jackson). This week Best draws a Minnesota defense that has seen better days, and coming off a monster week he's likely to carry that into this weekend. Like the Bills, Detroit's offense is finally beginning to some together. When Calvin Johnson draws quadruple coverage, obviously Best is going to have plenty of space to catch the ball out of the backfield and turn it into a big play. He's a monster in a PPR format and if you have him, you're starting him every week for the rest of the season.
Week 3 Forecast: 18 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD, 7 REC, 73 YDS, 21 PTS
Honorable mentions: Daniel Thomas, LeSean McCoy
Steve Smith WR CAR
Matchup vs Jacksonville
Who has been the biggest beneficiary of Cam Newton's surprise debut into the NFL other than Newton himself? It's been Steve Smith of course. I bet Smith is glad he didn't leave Carolina now as it seems he's the only receiver Newton knows how to throw a deep ball to. Smith has put up some crazy numbers in his first two games of the season and draws a Jaguars matchup that should have fantasy owners liking their chops (or quivering in a corner, depending on what side you're on). Smith will get his catches in this one, and with that almost certainly comes a score versus Jacksonville. He's a must start this week.
Week 3 Forecast: 8 REC 134 YDS, 1 TD, 19 PTS
Mike Sims-Walker WR STL
Matchup vs Baltimore
I'm just as surprised he's here as you are. I've never been the biggest fan of Sims-Walker (he burned me years ago, still haven't forgiven him), but he led the Rams in targets last week and face a Ravens defense who's secondary has looked pretty sad so far this year. Sims-Walker is another guy who could be PPR gold, so if that's the case in your league make sure you start him, at least as your flex.
Week 3 Forecast: 7 REC 111 YDS, 1 TD, 17 PTS
Honorable mentions: Stevie Johnson, Wes Welker
Rob Gronkowski TE NE
Matchup vs Buffalo
I already talked about Fitz putting up gaudy numbers in this game and mentioned Stevie and Welker in the honorables just above, so it's only right to include the Buffalo boy in here as well. Gronkowski had one hell of a homecoming last season against the Bills, reeling in three touchdowns against them last season. He's off to a great start this season, too, leading all tight ends in scoring through two weeks. It doesn't hurt that Aaron Hernandez has already been ruled out here as well. Gronkowski will be a huge threat inside the 20 just as he always is. Expect great things.
Week 3 Forecast: 8 REC 112 YDS, 2 TD, 25 PTS
Honorable mentions: Fred Davis, Marcedes Lewis
Week 2 Told'ya So(Duds)
Chris Johnson RB TEN
Projected: 78 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Actual: 65 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Dwayne Bowe WR KC
Projected: 3 REC 42 YDS, 0 TD, 5 PTS
Actual: 5 REC, 101 YDS, 0 TD, 9 PTS
Reggie Wayne WR IND
Projected: 4 REC 62 YDS, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Actual: 4 REC 66 YDS, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Week 2 Eating Crow(Duds)
Cam Newton QB CAR
Projected: 209 YDS, 0 TD, 3 INT, 1 PT
Actual: 432 YDS, 1 TD 3 INT, 53 RYDS, 1 TD, 20 PTS
Fred Jackson RB BUF
Projected: 91 TOTYDS, 2 REC, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Actual: 140 TOTYDS, 2 REC, 2 TD, 21 PTS
Tony Gonzalez TE ATL
Projected: 3 REC 42 YDS, 4 PTS
Actual: 7 REC 83 YDS, 2 TD, 22 PTS
Week 1 Success Rate: 3/6, 50%
Week 2 Success Rate: 3/6, 50%
Overall (Combined Studs & Duds): Week 8-4, Season 15-9.
Tony Romo QB DAL
Matchup vs Washington
America's favorite quarterback. Personally, I don't know why everyone hates Romo. I love his toughness. To be able to come back in and play the way he did after the injury last week says a lot. I think he's a very good quarterback who has just simply experienced some hard luck throughout his career. However, it's likely Romo experiences more of that crappy luck this week as he's heading into Washington with a punctured lung, broken ribs and everyone on the Redskins defense trying break two more on each play. He's already said it hurts to laugh and breathe, so it just makes me wonder how painful it'll be the first time he gets body slammed to the ground by Brian Orakpo. I honestly don't see Romo finishing this game, let alone putting up good numbers. I'm benching him in my leagues this week.
Week 3 Forecast: 17/29, 217 YDS, 1 TD 1 INT, 9 PTS
Honorable mentions: Jay Cutler, Blaine Gabbert
Mike Tolbert RB SD
Matchup vs Kansas City
For some odd reason everyone in the fantasy community seems to have fallen in love with Tolbert and I'm not sure why. He's not the starting running back, guys. That's Ryan Matthews and he showed last week every bit of reason why he's deserving of that role. I know Tolbert was awesome in week one, but there's barely enough carries to go around for one running back in San Diego let alone two. Stay far, far away from Tolbert the rest of this season unless of course Matthews goes down.
Week 3 Forecast: 7 CAR 33 YDS, 0 TD, 1 PT
Dexter McCluster RB KC
Matchup vs San Diego
Here's another guy who everyone seems to be WAY too high on heading into this week. McCluster was drafted a wide receiver, hybrid type return threat out of college, so why people think he'll succeed running the ball between the tackles is beyond me. Sure, he'll get a few catches which makes him somewhat attractive in PPR leagues, but that's about all he's worth. I'm not taking the risk starting him this week, especially not against San Diego.
Week 3 Forecast: 16 CAR 59 YDS, 4 REC 20 YDS, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Honorable mentions: DeAngelo Williams, Steven Jackson
Plaxico Burress WR NYJ
Matchup vs Oakland
Plaxico Burress made one whole catch last week, disappointing fantasy owners everywhere. I've got a feeling that trend will continue throughout the year for Burress who to me looks a bit out of tune. But hey, I guess that's what the slammer will do to you. Santonio Holmes is Sanchez's go-to guy, and in this run-first offense and a mediocre QB, I don't see there being much value in a Jets receiver not named Holmes the rest of the year.
Week 3 Forecast: 4 REC 52 YDS, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Mike Williams WR TB
Matchup vs Atlanta
The Buffalo native has certainly hit a sophomore slump, or so it would appear. It also looks as though quarterback Josh Freeman has, too, which is equally as bad of news for Williams owners. This week Williams and the Bucs draw a good Atlanta defense with a very physical, underrated secondary. I think they find a way to shut Williams down in a game where I have a gut feeling not too many points will be scored.
Week 3 Forecast: 3 REC 49 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Honorable mentions: Reggie Wayne, Brandon Lloyd
Brandon Pettigrew TE DET
Matchup vs Minnesota
Pettigrew was my man crush of sorts at tight end before this season. It's safe to say he has broken my heart throughout the first two weeks of this season, but I guess I should have seen that coming from a team that has a guy names "Megatron" on their roster. Pettigrew has been mainly used in blocking schemes for Detroit so far this season, all but diminishing his fantasy value. I dropped him in my leagues this week in favor of the more attractive Fred Davis. If you're still relying on Pettigrew I'd advise you to do the same as I don't thing he'll be used in quite the same way he was last season.
Week 3 Forecast: 2 REC 31 YDS, 3 PTS
Honorable mentions: Zach Miller, Ed Dickson
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Meter: Week 3 vs New England
Seeing as I included an unusually ridiculous amount of Bills and Patriots in my Studs and Duds, I'm going to fore-go the Bills meter this week and simply refer you back to my "Studs" section above. Yeah, how many times did you think we'd be able to say that about a Bills game this year?
Disagree with something I said? Well, let me hear it in the comment box! Better yet, follow me on Twitter if you seek answers to any additional fantasy questions you may have @THWGoldSchlager.